marine weather discussion NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 152 am EST Mon 23 Nov 2009

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

Large high pres conts to build se across the nrn waters... supporting mod NE flow of 20 to 25 kt ovr most of the offshore waters tngt...xcpt except far NW waters 15 to 20 kt. Models cont to fcst low pres to dvlp offshore and move to E of the VA CAPES by late aftn...then cont to deepen and move low NE tngt thru Tue. GFS has been fairly consistent with this fcst...only latest runs are deeper. Ll vort fields indct GFS is having minor convective feedback prblms. The gfsp is smlr to the op GFS...though just a bit more tepid on deepening the low. The ECMWF/UKMET/cdn are smlr...with all the models arriving at a fcst of the sfc low over ern Georges Bank at 00z Wed. Oddly...the GFS ensmbl mean is se of all global models. The GFS is 3 to 4 mbs deeper than the other models. The NAM...never catches on and takes a very weak low and moves it eastward...then northward and is discarded.

Will cont with E gales dvlpng at 00z tngt S of New England waters...then across the rmndr of the nrtrn waters tngt. Xpct gales to end Tue and Tue ngt. Will stay with minimal gales... instead the higher 40 ro 45 kt fcst by the overdone GFS.

Next fcst prblm is late Thu and Fri. Models cont to have prblms in timing of dvlpng cut off upr low ovr the Ohio vlly late Thu... then bringing large upr low eastward. The GFS and ECMWF are the most alike while the cdn and esp the UKMET conts to be too progressive. On the sfc...a sig cyclone is likely to affect the offshore waters Fri. Details are dffclt at this point with confidence lacking. Wl fcst a mix of the new GFS and ECMWF... leaning more twds the latter. The GFS ensmbl members are scattered about and offer little...except to confirm that confidence should be low. Best bet for gales attm is for late Fri...early Sat in unstable caa in wake of sfc low off the mid Atlc coast. But owing to low confidence...wl kp winds checked at 30 kt maximum.

Seas...currently...obsrvtns compared with the W Atlc wave watch model are running 2 to 3 ft above the models off the NC and SC coast. Seas here shld gradu subside as winds veer to s'rly and dmnsh today. And over balt cnyn...seas are 1 to 2 ft abv gdnc... and do not see much of a reason to change. Elsewhere...wl fllw wave watch guidance...xcpt low seas 1 or 2 ft in assn with slgtly overfcst low. Also...late Fri...wl trim back seas 20 to 25 pct ovr the outer offshore waters.

Extratropical storm surge...fcst lvls reach just over 1 ft along the NJ coast 12z Tue. Since GFS winds are overdone...these hgts may be a lttl too high.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...gale tngt into Tue...low confdc. Gale Fri...low confdc. .Georges Bank...Gale tngt into Tue...low to mod confdc. .S of New England...Gale tngt into Tue...low to mod cofdc.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson to balt cnyn...none. .Balt cnyn to Hague line...Gale today into tngt E part...low to mod confdc. Gale Fri E Aprt...low confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...None. .Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...None. .Cape Fear to 31n...None.

.Forecaster prosise. Ocean forecast branch.