marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
655 PM PST sun 22 Nov 2009
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
00z NCEP prelim analysis shows high pres ridging extending
across the pz5 and N CA waters...while a dissipating cold front
extended across the central CA waters.
Dont plan on making significant changes for this forecast update
package and will maintain current warning headlines as is. 06z
GFS/NAM remain in fairly decent agreement with the prior 00z
models runs concerning frontal system moving thru the waters
Mon...then again late Tue into Wed...with pre-frontal gales
impacting the pz5 waters each time. High pres ridging builds
into the region during the day Thu into Fri.
The latest sfc observation showed W to NW winds 25 to 35 kt from
Cape Foulweather to Cape Flattery...W 20 to 30 kt from Pt St
George to Cape Foulweather...NW 10 to 20 kt W of pt Conception
to pt Arena and NW 20 to 30 kt S of pt Conception to Guadeloupe
island. Seas from the 18z analysis were 15 to 25 ft from Pt St
George to Cape Flattery with the highest W of Cape Lookout. At
18z buoy 46089 reported 24 ft and buoy 46029 had 21 ft. This was
abt 5 to 6 ft above the model fcst. Elsewhere over the pz6
waters seas from 12 to 18 ft N of pt Arena...9 to 14 ft from pt
Conception S and 9 to 12 ft elsewhere.
Low pres now inland over central Washington state will move away
from the area. A cold front across the central calif waters will
weaken and dissipate overnight. A high pres ridge building into
the N waters this evening will move inland over the pac NW
overnight. The high will build into the Great Basin Mon with an
offshore flow developing over the pz6 waters to the W and SW of
pt Conception. A strong cold front will move into the N waters
Mon...weaken and stall Mon night and lift back N as a warm front
Tue. Another cold front will move into the waters late Tue night
and Wed. A low pres center will develop on the front W of Pt St
George Wed night. The low will move NE along the front and
inland Thu while pulling the front se across the pz6 waters Thu.
High pres will build to the W and N Fri.
The pattern has been consistent. The gale force winds over pz5
area mostly E of the offshore area so will let warning expire
with this package. Have the gale coming back up with the next
front and Mon night. The front weakens as it moves into the
upper ridge...then lifts back N Tue as the upper ridge
amplifies. A second front will move into the pz5 waters Wed and
then travel se Wed night. The models develop a low on the front
W of SW Oregon with the low move NE and inland Thu and pulling
the front se across pz6. Plan to intro low but will keep take
the winds up to 30 kt. This will be weaker then the GFS but
close to ec...UKMET and UKMET. The Gem actually develops a much
stronger low and NOGAPS has no low. Once the low is inland a
brief NW flow sweeps down the coast. Then high pres builds back
into the area. For the pz6 waters has high pres to the N and W
with a offshore flow arnd 25 kt to the W of pt Conception from
tngt into into Tue and again Fri.
For seas will go with the ww3 but hold seas several ft higher
then the model for pz5 overnight and into Mon. The ww3 is
showing long period NW swell moving across the pz6 waters Mon
and Tue.
.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are
subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS
12 planet chat or by telephone.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale overngt into Mon...hi
confdc. Gale Tue ngt into Wed...MDT confdc.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale overngt into Mon...MDT
confdc. Gale Tue ngt into Wed...low to MDT confdc.
.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...none.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.
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